D.C. area forecast: Another weekday watching weekend storm
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until 6 p.m. for the D.C. metro area and north () *
Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Refresh page to update.
9:38 a.m. update: Given the current configuration of snow on radar along with warmer temperature forecasts, we will likely be decreasing the snow accumulation forecast for the D.C. metro. We’re preparing a full update that we will post shortly. 8:00 a.m. update: Temperatures are in the low to mid-30s across the metro area, with the majority of precipitation still west of I-81. In the past hour an area of snow and/or wintry mix has popped up in the northern suburbs around Gaithersburg, Md., which is now crossing I-270. These light bursts of snow or mix will probably continue to pop up ahead of the main shield of snow, which is approaching the region from the west. We’re still expecting the heavier snow to begin starting in the western suburbs around 10 or 11 a.m., and moving east from there.
Temperatures around the region at 8 a.m. ()
6:55 a.m. update: Snow is still a ways off to our west with temperature his morning mainly in the low-to-mid 30s. D.C.’s far western and northwestern suburbs could see light snow move in around or after 8-9 a.m. For the immediate metro area, the time of steadiest snow looks to be between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. Looking at the latest information, we still favor the north suburbs for the most snow and the worst driving conditions this afternoon into the evening commute. See below for more forecast details… TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. 5/10: Light snow or mix livens up the midday, but could slicken the commute home. EXPRESS FORECAST Today: Light snow or wintry mix likely. Highs: Mid-to-upper 30s. Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows: Upper 20s to low 30s. Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Highs: Low-to-mid 40s. FORECAST IN DETAIL Today’s weekday wintry threat arrives a bit later than the past two, which both started pre-dawn. The morning rush is probably mostly fine, but the evening commute could be a different story depending on how much it snows, for how long, and how much it accumulates. We’re talking minor amounts of snow, but still with the potential to cause some problems. Thursday and Friday are nice and quiet, before another wintry storm threat Friday night and Saturday. Today (Wednesday): Light snow or a light wintry mix could enter the western suburbs as early as around 7-9 a.m., and reach areas near and inside the Beltway around or after 9 a.m., though precipitation may be scattered and intermittent before becoming steadier during the late morning and afternoon. Accumulations on the order of a coating to 3″ are possible, especially on grassy areas, with the highest amounts north of the District (see map below for more details). Roads may pick up some accumulation as well, especially side streets and untreated surfaces during any heavier bursts. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 30s with light winds, with the snow or mix exiting the area to the east around 4-5 p.m. The timing is about as good as you could ask for a weekday — focused mainly between the morning and afternoon rush rather than during — but still plan for the possibility of some slow going. The worst road conditions are likely to be in the northern suburbs during the afternoon and into the first part of the evening commute.
Capital Weather Gang snowfall forecast for January 21, second call
Tonight: We may see a few lingering early-evening snow showers or flurries, especially in the eastern suburbs. Otherwise, skies stay partly to mostly cloudy as temperatures fall, but don’t plummet. Lows settle in the upper 20s to low 30s with continued light winds.
High For related traffic news, . Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend… Tomorrow (Thursday): Not much to see here with no weather systems nearby. We probably hold on to some clouds, but overall it looks like a partly sunny day. Highs should end up in the seasonable low-to-mid 40s with a bit of a breeze, near 10 mph from the west-northwest.
Medium-High Tomorrow night: High pressure builds in, which should turn skies mostly clear as we head into the evening and overnight. Temperatures fall to fairly typical levels for this time of year, with lows in the mid-20s to low 30s.
High A LOOK AHEAD Friday shapes up as another uneventful weather day around here, and actually a pretty nice one. Skies should be mostly sunny for much of the day, with perhaps some increasing clouds later in the afternoon as highs rise into the 40s.
High Odds are increasing that we’ll see an extended period of precipitation develop sometime Friday night and potentially last into a good part of Saturday, as a storm system tracks up the coast from the south. Right now anything from snow, to a wintry mix, to plain rain is possible, with Friday night lows in the 30s and Saturday highs in the mid-30s to low 40s. Accumulating snow is possible, especially but not necessarily limited to north and west of the District, but the details on this one are still coming together so stay tuned.
Low The storm should be gone or exiting the area by the time we get to Saturday night, with lows expected in the upper 20s to low 30s. Sunday should bring partly sunny skies with highs in the 40s, but another Clipper system looming to our west could threaten another round of wintry precipitation Sunday night or Monday.
Medium SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale. 5/10 (↑): Light snow around today and more chances this weekend and early next week.
Dan Stillman is a meteorologist and editor for the Capital Weather Gang. He earned an M.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University, and a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences from the University of Michigan.
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US Winter Forecast: Cold, Snow to Seize N Wintry Blasts to Slick South
By Jillian MacMath,
Staff Writer
October 24,
Though parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic had a gradual introduction to fall, winter will arrive without delay. Cold air and high snow amounts will define the season.
Farther south, ice storms and snow events will threaten the Tennessee Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Much of the South can prepare for a wet winter, with some severe weather encroaching on Florida.
The northern Plains will be somewhat inconsistent with variable, back-and-forth temperatures and below-normal snowfall. Meanwhile, the drought will persist in the Northwest and northern California and ease slightly farther south.
A breakdown of
U.S. Winter Forecast can be found below.
JUMP TO: |
After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the
Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.
"I think, primarily, we'll see that happening in mid-January into February but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation as we saw last year, not as persistent,"
Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
"The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We saw readings that we haven't seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero readings."
In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95 corridor.
"Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the mountains, the Appalachians, I think that's where you're going to see your bigger, heavier amounts," Pastelok said.
Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New York City will likely follow suit.
The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.
"I'm very concerned about the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast as far as extremes go this year," Pastelok said.
Areas from eastern Texas all the way up to eastern Kentucky could be under the gun for ice events this season. The region will likely see this in January, but the I-10 corridor should be on guard for a sneaky late-January or early-February storm.
Overall, the region will have a very wet winter, but the timing of these storms will determine whether a flood risk exists.
"These are big storms that are going to form and put down a lot of rain, but there may be breaks in between," Pastelok said.
"The Gulf hasn't been disturbed from tropical activity, so the warmer waters may hang on into the middle part of the winter and give us that extra boost into some of these systems coming up the East Coast."
The weather pattern, a weak El Nino, paired with the southern storm track and rich moisture source will set up Florida for a significant severe weather potential in mid- to late winter. Tornadoes will be possible from mid-January to February.
In a story similar to the Northeast, the winter season has several cold months planned for the Midwest, though not quite as extreme as last year.
Temperature wise, areas such as Duluth, Minnesota, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, may be 7-9 degrees warmer than last year's three-month average.
Below-normal snowfall totals are also forecast.
Chicago could fail to reach 30 inches this year, and Minneapolis has an even greater chance of falling below normal.
Farther west, the northern and central Plains will endure roller-coaster temperatures. Fewer clipper systems than normal will reach down into the area, preventing high overall snow totals.
A weak El Nino pattern, which is expected to unfold, may lead to high moisture in the Southwest.
"That moisture source is needed to get above-normal snowfall for the region. I do believe there are going to be periods where moisture gets in there," Pastelok said.
If it does, the Four Corners region, including Albuquerque, could get near- to slightly above-normal snowfall totals this year.
"Northwestern Texas, western Oklahoma, Kansas, they can also see near- to slightly above-normal snowfall this year," Pastelok said.
As California suffers through its fourth and most extreme year of drought, the state is in dire need of precipitation this winter.
"California, the northern Sierra and Sierra Nevada are going to be below normal, although I do think that they are going to get enough snow to hold back the drought just a little bit from getting any worse than it is," Pastelok said.
December will bring some rain to northern California, but the precipitation will ease off in the following months, making the region drier than normal by February. After a season of intense wildfires, the precipitation that reaches the Northwest will not be enough to prevent problems next year.
However, the winter isn't all bad news for the drought-stricken region, Pastelok said.
The weather pattern will allow some Eastern Pacific moisture to be pulled in, causing some big events which will increase the snowfall rates in the mountains.
Additionally, Southern California looks to fare better than its northern counterpart with slightly above-normal precipitation this season, especially in areas farther from the coast.
Have questions, comments, or a story to share? Email Jillian MacMath at , follow her on Twitter
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Custom SearchD.C. area forecast: Spotty wintry mix this afternoon, then a mild, wet W snow risk early Thursday
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for immediate metro area and north through 10 p.m. tonight * []
Radar: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Refresh page to update.
Key points for Tuesday’s wintry mix:
Another wave of rain and wintry mix will move through the area late this afternoon and evening, but should be light and scattered. From the Beltway and points south, temperatures from 32-35 should rise safely above freezing, meaning few impacts fro the evening commute should be without major issues. In our colder areas from around Leesburg through northern Montgomery County and to the west side of Baltimore, a sidewalks, driveways, and untreated side roads could become slick, but major roads should stay ice-free. Precipitation tapers off around 7 or 8 p.m. when temperatures everywhere are expected to be above freezing.
Update at 4:35 p.m.: We’ve published the , which includes more information about the wintry mix tonight, as well as updates for the Wednesday-Thursday winter storm. Any new updates about this evening’s weather will be posted there. Update at 3:30 p.m.: Another patch of wintry mix is pushing across northern D.C. and the northern Beltway. Road temperatures are at or above freezing in most locations (including the Beltway), but there are a few sensors reporting below-freezing road temperatures in our cooler areas north of the city.
Temperatures at 3:30 p.m. (Weather Underground)
Update at 2:20 p.m.: The current batch of precipitation has moved east of the Beltway now, but another wave could move in around 4 p.m.
The precipitation has cooled the air a little bit, and temperatures have dropped by a degree or two in the District, but are still mostly at or above freezing. Some stations in Northwest are reporting 31 degrees, and Columbia Heights is also reporting 31 degrees. Between 1 and 2 p.m., National dropped from 35 to 34 degrees. However, despite the temp-drop in the city, we’re still not expecting roads to ice up since they will stay a bit warmer than the air temperature. In general, temperatures will continue to climb over the next couple of hours. Suburbs to the north and west where temperatures have been persistently at or just below freezing could see slippery spots on sidewalks and other particularly cold, untreated roads. We will continue to update on conditions and temperatures as the next round of precipitation moves into the area.
Temperatures at 2:15 p.m. (Weather Underground)
Update at 1:15 p.m.: The winter weather advisory has been canceled for our far southwest suburbs, but
until 10 p.m. The area under an advisory is shown in purple below.
A winter weather advisory is in effect until 10 p.m. for the areas in purple. (NWS)
Light sleet, rain and freezing rain is moving through the immediate metro area and points north and west. Temperatures continue to hover around the freezing mark, and so we’ve been getting a few reports of slick spots on roads in our northern suburbs, and ice accumulating on cold surfaces (like cars).
Rain is freezing on windshields in northern suburbs. ICC is a bit slick. — thinklynsen (@thinklynsen)
While we’re not expecting this to be a widespread icing event (like Sunday’s, for example), it’s still best to use caution on the roads, especially on untreated roads, and north of the city where temperatures will be slower to climb.
Temps at 1:15 p.m. (Weather Underground)
Update at 12:10 p.m.: An area of light sleet (with some rain and freezing rain mixed in) has developed and will zip through the region over the next hour or so. It is neither heavy enough nor long-lasting enough to cause problems, but use caution in case a slick spot or two forms.
Some kind of very light precip in NW Arlington. Clicking a little on the windows. — T2Va (@T2Va)
sleeting in Leesburg. — Jennifer Lee (@jmkcajlee)
Sleeting in Burke too at noon. — Stephanie (@MrsfiddleS)
Update at 11:10 a.m.: Radar shows any midday precipitation very widely scattered and light. The latest modeling shows any steadier precipitation may not arrive until about 3:30-5 p.m. and by then most areas have warmed to freezing or a bit higher (many areas near and south of D.C. already have). Moreover, the precipitation that comes in should be mostly light and short-lived, lasting only 2-3 hours at most (through around 7 p.m.). At this point, we are pretty underwhelmed with today’s event and think many areas may just see some spotty sleet and then a little plain rain. The risk of iciness seems more confined to our far northern suburbs from Leesburg to Frederick to the west side of Baltimore, where sidewalks, side roads and driveways have a chance for a little iciness. But even there, this could turn into a non-event by and large. If we were the National Weather Service, we might even drop the winter weather advisory for the immediate metro region for this event. If you have plans late this afternoon and evening, we encourage you to keep an eye on our forecast updates but expect most people should be able to get around without too many issues. Update at 10:05 a.m.: Snow and wintry mix remains off to our west, in eastern West Virginia and western Maryland, but it is slowly creeping toward the D.C. region which you can see on radar. Latest models suggest that scattered, patchy light precip in the form of snow and/or sleet could begin around 12-1 p.m. in the immediate metro area, with heavier precipitation moving into the area around 3-4 p.m. TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. 2/10: I like snow, I like spring, but I don’t like mixed muck. EXPRESS FORECAST Today: Cloudy with mixed precip in afternoon. Highs: 33-36. Tonight: Evening mixed precipitation. Lows: 32-35. Tomorrow: Showers, especially in afternoon. Highs: 48-54. FORECAST IN DETAIL March meteorological madness is in full swing with wild weather swings from day to day.
A wintry mix this afternoon into the evening means the chance for some iciness.
But then Wednesday, temperatures rebound with 50s possible and regular old rain. That brief flirtation with mild air is followed by an Arctic front that breathes cold air back into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain in the area at the time may well turn to accumulating snow. Today (Tuesday): A cloudy and cold morning greets us with below freezing temperatures that turn all wet areas from yesterday to ice again, so be cautious once more when you go out your door.
Temperatures slowly advance into the 30s through the morning until precipitation arrives by afternoon, which should cool temperatures back toward freezing levels.
Here is estimated timeline of expected events:
Light snow and/or sleet develops between around 1 p.m. and 3 p.m.
Temperatures 30-34. Snow and/or sleet change to light freezing rain or rain (I-95 and east) between 2 and 4 p.m. Temperatures 30-34. Freezing rain or plain rain (depending on location) tapers off between 6 and 7 p.m.
Temperatures: 31-35. All accumulations are expected to be very light.
This light frozen precipitation may cause slick sidewalks, driveways and side roads, especially west and north of the Beltway where temperatures are more likely to be below freezing.
In most areas, treated main roads should be just wet. Light winds blow from the east and northeast at 5 to 10 mph. : Medium Tonight: We’ll need to watch temperatures closely as we could still be hovering near the freezing mark into the evening commute.
Evening rain and freezing rain (mostly well north and west of city) tapers off around 7 p.m., with just widely scattered rain showers later at night.
Temperatures hold steady or inch up a bit through the 30s (above freezing in most spots) as winds transition to come from a warmer southwest and south direction at 5 to 15 mph.
Medium For related traffic news, . Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend… Tomorrow (Wednesday):
Welcome to the warmest day of the work week with variable cloud cover and scattered showers becoming more numerous in the afternoon.
High temperatures climb well into the 40s, but we could see low maybe even middle 50s if we get enough breaks of cloud cover to let the March sunlight through.
Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy toward
the late afternoon and
evening hours as the Arctic front approaches.
Medium [] Tomorrow night: A massive March cold front slowly steers its way through our region.
Right now, the guidance is divided on how quickly cold air rushes into the area overnight.
For now, the safest thing to expect is mostly rain up through midnight and maybe a few hours beyond with some transition toward snow by late night towards dawn.
Temperatures fall into the low 30s with some upper 20s north and west of the city toward dawn, which could bedevil our morning commute.
We need to monitor this situation very closely.
Memorial Bridge, February 26, 2015 ()
A LOOK AHEAD Thursday
finds snow more likely in the morning with a chance of significant accumulation before tapering off around midday.
Mostly cloudy skies and cold with daytime highs in the lower to middle 30s at best, but it may hold colder in the afternoon thanks to this latest Arctic intrusion.
Partly cloudy and cold Thursday night with lows ranging through the teens in the outer suburbs to around 20 in the city.
Outlying areas with heavier new snow cover could edge toward the upper single digits too.
Low Friday is another very cold day for this time of year with highs only in the lower to middle 30s with partly to mostly sunny skies.
A few clouds hang around Friday night as lows dive again to the teens and 20s, keeping us in the freezer longer.
Medium The weekend sees moderating temperatures, but we still manage to maintain mostly colder than normal weather. At least we stay dry.
Saturday and Sunday both see partly sunny skies with Saturday in the middle and Sunday upper 40s.
Lows Saturday night with just a few clouds range through the 20s to low 30s.
Medium SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale. 6/10 (↑): The likelihood of accumulating snow is building for Thursday morning.
Some of the region's ice and snow was beginning to melt on Monday morning, but much of D.C. was still covered in ice as residents made their way to work in the nation's capital. (Sarah Parnass/The Washington Post)
Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.Angela Fritz is an atmospheric scientist and The Post's deputy weather editor.
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