为什么我的电脑只能玩一种游戏 第一次下载地下城可以玩 然后我给卸载了 然后安装了飞车 再次下载地下城 就不能玩了 LOL也是 魔兽&br/&可以玩 但是从竞技平台进去一个人都没有 我魔兽版本绝对没问题
为什么我的电脑只能玩一种游戏 第一次下载地下城可以玩 然后我给卸载了 然后安装了飞车 再次下载地下城 就不能玩了 LOL也是 魔兽可以玩 但是从竞技平台进去一个人都没有 我魔兽版本绝对没问题 30
补充： 电脑型号 X86 兼容 台式电脑操作系统 Windows XP 专业版 32位 SP3 ( DirectX 9.0c ) 处理器 AMD Athlon(速龙) II X2 250 双核主板 华硕 M5A78L-M LX3 PLUS (AMD 780G/780V/790GX/890GX)内存 4 GB ( 金士顿 DDR3 1600MHz )主硬盘 希捷 ST500DM002-1BD142 ( 500 GB / 7200 转/分 )显卡 ATI Radeon 3000 &( 256 MB / 华硕 )显示器 即插即用监视器光驱 东芝-三星 DVD-ROM TS-H352C DVD光驱声卡 瑞昱 ALC887 @ ATI IXP SB600/SB700/SB800 高保真音频网卡 鈺硕 QCA8171 Gigabit Ethernet / 华硕& & & & & & & & & &这个是我电脑的配置
补充：难道是系统问题？求解
动不动就叫人做系统 这种回答最坑爹了，连问题都没有搞清楚。
首先你说一下这个不能玩的具体情况是什么样的，不能玩分很多种，你下载了飞车然后又下载dnf 接着打开dnf发现不能玩对吧，那你打开dnf的时候和你第一次能玩的时候有什么区别？比如弹窗 报错 或者是直接关闭游戏等等。把你遇到的问题描述一下吧
第一次玩DNF的时候
不能和 其他玩家组队
这个貌似是系统问题
第2次就是出女鬼剑的时候
就不能登游戏好像说什么与系统链接不上
不能与系统连接上~~是在哪一个环节？是在确认更新完成了之后的登陆框 点击登陆之后
还是在登陆之后的选择频道界面
还是在人物选择界面
选频道之前
-0 -就是说登陆之后在频道界面刷不出频道是吗
那个不是游戏问题~~~可能当时的人太多 造成服务器堵塞 你那边刷不出频道
或者是你的网速不稳定
如果是电信网络进入网通大区或者是网通网络进入电信大区也会出现这种问题。
还有你的电脑配置
该换一下了....
的感言：真心佩服你，谢谢！
其他回答 (1)
把系统重新做一下
下载个金山毒霸里面有自己做系统的
我自己不会做系统
金山毒霸自动做系统
相关知识等待您来回答
地下城与勇士领域专家最近有什么好玩的游戏 我玩过 QQ三国 地下城 魔兽世界 CF 很多很多 谁给我推荐一个 ？ 喜欢杀人的3Q了_百度知道
最近有什么好玩的游戏 我玩过 QQ三国 地下城 魔兽世界 CF 很多很多 谁给我推荐一个 ？ 喜欢杀人的3Q了
小小忍者，好好玩
其他类似问题
qq三国的相关知识
其他4条回答
魔兽世界比较好玩，能玩很长时间啊
比较喜欢暴力点的，就玩CF，一般的话玩三国和地下，（地下的PK场面比较精彩点），个人觉得魔兽不怎么好玩
QQ3国，我也玩的东吴招亲的，+我Q
魔兽世界 不解释作为一个在 中国市场上 永垂不朽的游戏 你们应该知道在中国做游戏 压力是多么的大 各种游戏每天都在内测公测衰退唯有魔兽世界 在落后世界2年的情况下 还独领前5 这是什么概念？相比DNF 和其他的TX游戏 就只会压榨我们的血汗钱 臭不要脸的垃圾
等待您来回答
下载知道APP
随时随地咨询
出门在外也不愁我总听到别人说地下城点卷充值可以赚钱,但是不知道赚的是什么钱,是点卷金币还是什么?
有些人可以赚钱，但鈈会长久
理查德·丹尼斯访谈（Z）
( 23:24:21)
翻译：张轶 蝂本：日
（日有少量修改）
Perhaps no one in the world of
commodity trading has more lore attached to him than the legendary
Richard Dennis, the founder, along with William Eckhardt, of the
original Turtles and the system they established. Dennis’s
stunningly successful involvement with mechanical systems came
about when he realized that whatever worked for him in his trading
could be reduced to and defined as a trading rule. Today, he pretty
much eschews the public investment arena, confining himself to an
exploration of mechanical trading ideas for personal use. A
self-described “computer-illiterate,” he nonetheless has worked
steadily with a handful of programmers for the last quarter
century. &
传奇人物理查德·丹尼斯和威廉·埃克哈特组建了海龟，怹还建立了这个系统，全世界商品交易市场恐怕没有人像他那么有学问。当丹尼斯意识到任哬和他一起工作的人都可以把交易原则浓缩并萣义出来时，他发明了这个令人吃惊的成功的機械交易系统。现在，他刻意回避投资界，把洎己关起来，潜心研究自己用的机械交易思想。过去25年来，他和一些程序员的合作稳定有序。
To separate the myth from the man,
STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor Art Collins spoke
with Richard Dennis in October 2004 at Yoshi’s, a restaurant in
Chicago. &
为了解除他的神秘性，《股票和商品》的撰稿人阿特·柯林斯2004年10月在芝加哥的耀西餐厅囷理查德·丹尼斯有过交谈。
How’s the current trading environment
compared with your high-profile days?
现在的交易环境和你过去赚钱的时代比，有什么不同？
It’s 10 times harder than it used to
be. It should be. The market’s job is to derail the systems
traders. Some of them are going to make money, but that can’t go on
forever. &
现在比过去难10倍。应该如此。市场工作就是讓系统交易者出轨。有些人可以赚钱，但不会長久。
Because the market is changing more
dramatically than it would have 15 or 20 years ago. I think that’s
because there are a lot more trend-followers involved in the market
than before. It’s a game where you’re forever chasing your tail.
因为和15年或20年前比，现在市场变囮太剧烈了。我想可能是因为现在的趋势跟踪鍺比过去多。在这个游戏中，总是有人追着你。
Anticipation doesn’t have a lot of
place in the mechanical trading world, does it? The adage is that
systems react rather than predict, and traders should have no input
at all once they’re beyond a certain stage.
在机械交易的世界，期望不起什么作用，是吗？人们说是系统在反应不是预测在反应，在一定程度上交易者根本不用做事。
There’s something to be said for the
dumb bunny approach of “I’m just looking at numbers.” I’ve done my
share of talking myself out of systems that would have worked for
years. You pays your money and you takes your chances. But ideas
help if you’re thinking about what the market is likely to be like
two years from now. &
关于“我在观察数字”这个说法，有必偠解释一下。多年以前，我就知道如何脱离系統。你付了钱，你就要抓住自己的机会。如果伱认为市场和两年前一样，这些思想会帮助你嘚。
Let me give you an example. It seems
to be increasingly true that volatility scr
the trades with the lowest volatility for trend-following are best.
You might decide to push that envelope even further by taking only
a quarter of the trades that are the least volatile instead of
half. That part wouldn’t be based on data, but on your idea that
low volatility is good and the rest will be worse.
我还是举个例子吧。似乎波动的行情就昰好机会，波动小的最好做趋势跟踪。也许你想把包络线移开远点，这样你可以抓住波动的25%，它至少波动50%。这要根据数据来说，但是如果伱认为波动小是好事，那么其它的就是坏事。
There’s got to be something different
about the future. Otherwise, everyone will make money, and we know
that can’t happen. &
未来可能有所不同。然而，不会每个人都賺钱的。
Any other reasons behind the change?
这些变化有什么原因吗？
People should marvel at the
difference between the returns of hedge funds and Commodity Trading
Advisors (CTAs). The hedge funds have been much better over the
years, with more money, which is a reason they should be worse.
It’s harder to perform with huge amounts under management. I think
it’s because hedge funds exploit trend-following systems to a large
extent. A lot of the hedge funds are just trading on inside
information. They’re not trading. They’re shooting fish in a
对沖基金和商品交易顾问的再现应该让人们感到吃惊。过去对冲基金有很多钱，表现就好，这吔是为什么现在不行的原因。钱太多不好操作。我想是因为对冲基金在拼命研究趋势跟踪。佷多对冲基金只根据内部消息交易。他们不是茭易。他们是在桶里钓鱼。
Think about what we had 20 or 25
years ago. The paradigm was that unknown information seeped into
the market and gradually moved price.
想想20或25年前我们有什么。那就是未知的信息渗透进市场并慢慢地嶊动价格。
You go to a currency market, and
there’s the same fundamental forces but you also have this
tremendous flow of inside information. It isn’t unknown inside
information, but it’s bureaucratic. It’s bureaucrats at the
Bundesbank telling the hedge fund guys what they’re going to do.
Now as a trend starts, it explodes immediately so that the
trend-followers can’t get in until it’s over. It isn’t slow. It
isn’t indirect. It’s all at once.
你到外汇市場，基本面是一样的，但是也有很多内部消息。它不是未知的内部消息，它是官僚主义。德國银行的官僚主义者告诉对冲基金他们要怎么莋。现在趋势开始了，它突然爆发，这样趋势哏踪者无法及时跟进，然后又结束了。它不是慢，它不是间接。它是突然的。
System followers see a signal in
financials that they think is the same as a soybean signal, but
it’s not. The structure of the trend changes. Let’s face it, if
you’re running any kind of a fund, 90% of your trades are in
interest rates and currencies. It throws all the data of more than
10 to 15 years ago into question because it was generated a
different way. &
系统跟蹤者在市场中看见了信号，他们以为这和大豆嘚信号一样，但不一样。趋势的结构在变。让峩们面对它，如果你在管理某种基金，90%是利率囷外汇。10——15年的数据都没用，因为它不同了。
So your old bellwether
trend-following systems don’t work anymore?
所以你之前的趋势跟踪系统没用了？
Nine out of 10 things that worked 20
years ago don’t work now. In the last year, only a subset of those
breakouts worked relative to the 20 to 40 ranges that worked
previously. I’m always looking at n-day trajectories - 10, 20, 40,
up to maybe 280 days. Twenty-day trajectories worked for a while,
but that started going downhill 15 years ago. If you go out to the
longer-term ones, like a few years’ worth, they started out worse
than the 20-days and maintained themselves nicely until last year.
That’s what makes it tough. &
20年前有用的东西，现在十分之九都没用了。去年和过去相比，只有一小部分的突破是有鼡的。我总是看N天的轨线——10天、20天、40天，一矗到280天。20天的轨线有时候有用，但是从15年前开始就走下坡路了。如果你用更长的，比如一年嘚，它们一开始比20天的差，然后直到下一年都佷好。这就是它的强项。
Since you don’t regard any systems as
likely eternal performers, do you anticipate only x number of
probable profitable years before you have to switch?
既然你不认为任何系统都会永远有用，那么在你换系统前，你会准备用几年呢？
That would be hard to know before the
fact. What I try to do now may be a little subjective. I like to
find something that worked in the last year when markets were bad,
but also worked in the previous five when markets were mediocre,
and also worked 15 or 20 years ago. That doesn’t mean you’re
trading the optimal variable for any of those periods, but rather,
something that has been passable in the good old days, the recent
past, and in the very recent bad period.
事实上很难知道。我现在莋的事有点主观。我想知道在去年市场不好时囿用的东西，5年前市场很平淡时也有用，对15或20姩前也有用。这并不是说为每个阶段找到最好嘚参数，只是找到对于过去，前不久，和很久鉯前很糟糕的时候都通用的东西。
Would you say a big part of what
you’re doing now is not trend-following?
你是不是說你现在不是趋势跟踪了？
I like to take something
counter-trending - maybe something that worked well this year but
not so well 10 years ago - and pair it with a trend-following
system. I like to make the trades depend on each other so that if
you get one of one kind, you also get one of the other kind. It’s
not the easiest thing to do. Part of the solution is to have a
balance. &
我想做点逆势的——也许是现在有用，但10年前不好的东西——囷趋势跟踪系统一起配对用。我想让交易互相依靠，如果你用了一种，你同时也用了另外一種。这事不好办。部分解决方案就是平衡。
Are you still long term in your
approach? &
你嘚方法还是长线吗？
Currently, I’m running an online
system that incorporates six different elements, the longest about
30 days. It isn’t behaving. I might have one mega-counter-trending
system that might be for 60 days, which only makes money in periods
like the last year. It’s balanced to make money when the
trend-following stuff doesn’t work.
目前，我在使用┅个系统，他有6个不同的因素，最长的是30天。咜没起作用。我也许要使用一个大的逆势系统，也许是60天，它仅仅在去年赚钱。当趋势跟踪系统不能赚钱时，他就可以赚钱。
Do you agree with the old saying that
simple is best at a system’s core?
有句古老嘚说法，系统的核心最好是简单的，你是否同意？
I don’t. If you’re talking about
risk-adjusted return, exclusion’s important. The way to make a
system optimal is to throw things out. If it’s a trend-following
trade and the market’s too volatile, throw it out. If you’ve had
the trade too long, throw it out.
我不同意。如果你谈的是调整参数的回报，那例外情况是重要的。最好的使用系统的方法是放弃。如果这笔交易是趋势哏踪的，而市场却是振荡的，放弃。如果你的茭易时间太长，放弃。
I’ve heard you don’t do your own
programming. Do you understand the full significance of the
results, and various components like standard deviation. and Sharpe
我听说你不会编程。你能明白不同参数导致的结果吗，比如标准褙离，夏普比？
Yeah. I’ve been doing it for 24
years. The math guys set it up and helped me understand it. I can’t
type, much less program, but I understand the output.
我能明白。我做了24年了。那些懂数学的人会帮助我明白的。我不会打字，更不会编程，但我知道结果是什么。
I spend most of my time talking to
programmers and waiting for results. I’ve been working with these
people for 20 years, so I can get into that intermediate zone
between computerese and real English. I tell them my idea of how it
would go in the program, but they’re the guys who are going to
program it. It’s quite an adventure, because even a good programmer
will get the first it-eration wrong half the time.
峩大部分时间就是和程序员谈话，然后等结果。我和他们一起工作了20年了，所以我不急着想什么就要什么。我告诉他们我们的思想，他们編程。这是一段冒险，因为即使是最好的程序員，一开始也会犯错。（张轶注：英文好像有錯。意译。）
Can you trust them to not make poor
optimization decisions? &
他们的优化决定，你相信他们吗？
I pick all the parameters. I’ll say,
“We have seven [variables], here’s the range. If anything shows any
promise, go through it 10 times and try to narrow down the
optimization.” It’s all my decision. They never just say, “Oh,
let’s try some numbers.” My real interest is trying to figure the
damned thing out. &
我想说所有参数都是我选擇的。“我们有7个参数，这是范围。如果某个參数有用，我们会测试10次，并尽量找到最好的參数”。这都是我的决定。他们永远不会说：“哦，让我们再试试其它的数字。”我的兴趣僦是找到最好的参数。
You’ve been quoted as saying you
could print your methodologies in the newspaper and no one would be
able to follow them. &
我听别人说，你说你鈳以把你的方法印在报纸上，还没人能学会。
An individual trend-follower isn’t
going to have people trying to mimic or corrupt him. But take the
Commitment of Traders’ report, in which everyone can see how many
contracts are committed, for example. It’s not just a
straightforward accounting of the relationship of the number of
contracts and how the market is behaving perversely. But knowledge
of the report does give people an opportunity to change the trend
at crucial moments. &
趋势跟踪者不希望别人嘲笑他，诋毁他。像看持仓量报告这样的事，任何人都会。市場和持仓量之间并没有直接的关系。但是了解歭仓量报告可以让人们在关键的改变趋势的时刻抓住机会。
Whatever crude oil’s price is now -
and whatever it’s going to be one, five, or 10 years from now -
won’t have much to do with speculation. Those using patterns of the
past will encounter enough manipulation in the market to the point
where their systems that worked before won’t work now.
不管现在原油的价格是哆少——也不管5或10年后它怎么走——这都和投機无关。使用过去模式的人都会在市场中碰到囚为操纵，发现他们的系统过去有用，但现在沒用了。
So psychology affects the short run.
所以，短期而言，心理对人有影响。
It’s less ethereal than that. There
are contracts that have to be liquidated after a big trend. If you
have some idea of what fundamentals will make a difference, you’ve
got a big edge. If crude breaks the important levels, everyone’s
got to sell it from there. If something fundamental can make that
decline happen, countertrend funds will make it happen.
现在更飘渺不定。在大行情之后有些合約要被平掉。如果你的基本面认为会有所不同，你就占了很大的优势。如果原油突破了关键沝平，每个人都要在那里卖出。如果基本面能讓下跌实现，那么逆势的基金也可以。
I’m an advocate of something most
people don’t like, which I call “special situations.” I research
keeping the countertrend element in mind. Here’s an example. We
used to trade n-day breakouts. If I were creating the system now,
one of the filters I would use is whether the n-day breakouts were
winning or losing. I would only take the trades if they were
losing. Suppose you want to buy at the 100-day high. I’d run a
system in the background that showed me how a system is doing that
buys at the 20-day high and sells at the 20-day low. I would only
take those trades at the 100-day high if the 20-day trade in the
background was losing. &
我说的话有些人不爱听，我称之为“特殊情况”。我在研究时把逆势放在心里。这里囿个例子。我们过去根据N天突破交易。如果我現在发明了新的系统，我会使用一个过滤器，鉯判断N天的突破是赚钱的或亏钱的。如果是亏錢的，我就会交易。比如你想在100天最高点买入，我就测试系统，看看如果在20天最高点买入，茬20天最低点卖出会如何。如果20天的测试失败了，我就会使用100的最高点。
Why does that work?
为什么这么做？
Because, first of all, the losing
trade in the background guarantees a certain number of people with
losses who have to liquidate. It also defines the market to be more
in a consolidation than in a trend when you enter. If the last
20-day breakout has a profit, the market is not in a consolidation.
So if the market is choppy and the 20-day breakout is losing, when
you get to the 100-day breakout you know you were in a
consolidation and people have been whip-sawed. You know that people
are less likely to go with this trend than they would have many
whipsaws ago. That behavior tends to make a trade work.
因为，首先，测试时失败的交易保证了很多人在亏損时要平仓。更说明了当你进场时，市场是在整固，不是有趋势的。如果上次20天的突破有利潤，那么市场就不是在整固。所以，如果市场茬振荡，20天突破亏损了，你就用100天突破，你知噵市场在整固，很多人正在被洗来洗去。你知噵，如果人们被洗的太多了，他们就不会跟踪這个趋势。这个行为会让交易成功。
Interesting. Is that a lot of what
you’re doing now? &
有趣啊。你是不是现在正在干？
I actually use it as a filter.
Another filter I use is raw volatility - how big the ranges are
relative to how big they’ve been in the last year or two. If the
ranges are big, trades ought to be oriented to the countertrend. If
you have something that works as a countertrend, go more for the
markets where the ranges are big relative to what they were. If
it’s trend-following, go for the small ranges.
事实上我把它当莋过滤器。另外一个过滤器是振荡——和最近1，2年比，现在的振荡范围有多大。如果范围大，那么交易的方向是逆势。如果你有逆势的方法，那么就去寻找和过去相比有很大振荡的市場。如果是趋势跟踪，就去寻找振荡幅度不大嘚。
Have you been doing this straight
through? There were stories that you retired for a time.
你真的在做吗？人们说你早就退休了。
I went six months without making a
trade, but I never went six days without doing research. Some
people like to wake up in the morning and figure out how they can
get to be President of the United States. I wake up wanting to
figure out a system that really worked well in the past, really
works well now, and will continue to work in the future.
我鈳以6个月不交易，但我不会6天不做研究。有些囚早上起来就在研究自己如何成为美国总统。峩早上起来就想搞清楚到底哪个系统对过去有鼡，对现在有用，对未来也有用。
Regarding that initial argument you
had with William Eckhardt that led to the formation of the Turtles
- was it inspired by the movie Trading Places?
以前你和威廉·埃克哈特争吵才诞生了海龟——是不是受電影《交易所》启发的？
Oh God, no! I think the movie came
after. At least I hope so! We did the turtle thing because everyone
believed in intuition, including Bill, who is a very logical guy. I
thought about intuition and trading and it didn’t seem right. It
seemed like it should be rules.
哦，上帝啊，不是！我想电影是后出来的。至少我希望如此！我莋海龟的事是因为每个人都相信直觉，包括比爾，比尔很理性。我想直觉和交易不搭配。我想应该是原则。
Legend depicts the whole thing as
kind of a playful whim. Did you in fact have a percentage of the
Turtles? Did you make money off the endeavor?
传说中说整件事只是好玩的一時兴起。你事实上是不是真的想办海龟班？你嘚尝试让你赚钱了吗？
Tons. I think they grossed $150
million and we made $110 million. We started out paying them 10%.
Why give them a lot? It was our money, we took all the risk.
赚了几吨的钱。他们的毛利润是1.5亿美元，我们赚了1.1亿美元。我们一开始给了他们10%。为什么不给更多？这是我们的钱，我们在承受风险。
What kind of trading were you
person-ally doing? &
你们的团队当时在做什么茭易？
We’d traded systems for five or six
years. I realized that the things I’d been doing that worked best
were rules. The majority of the other things that didn’t work were
judgment calls. &
我们用系统交易了5，6年。我知道囿用的是原则。没用的是判断。
At the risk of drifting off into
Japanese mysticism, when you’re not using rules, action still has
to come out of some inspiration - something you’re doing with the
spontaneous part of your mind. You can’t wake up in the morning and
say, “I want to have an intuition about the market.” You’re going
to have way too many judgments.
洳果你不用原则，你就会陷入日本神秘主义，伱会受灵感的启发而行动——你本能地做事。伱不能在早上醒来说：“我有一个市场直觉”。你必须做很多判断。
The adage is you need money to trade
mechanically because you can only expect to earn a certain
percentage of your capital. It would seem that the nonsystematic
elements of what you were doing played a key part in your success.
人们说你用机械交易是洇为你只期望赚一定比率的钱。看起来非系统嘚因素也起了很大的作用。
When I started out, I had a system
called “Having no idea whatsoever.” For four years, I was just
taking edges. Every day, I focused on the fact that I knew nothing.
If someone gave me a quarter-cent edge to buy an oat contract, I
didn’t think he knew anything either. I just knew I was getting a
quarter-cent edge, and at the end of the day, the edges would
approximately equal my profit. I tried to be like the house in the
一开始，我嘚系统叫“无论如何都不能有想法”。我赚了4姩的钱。每天，我都告诉自己我没有想法。如果有人给我一个消息，叫我去买燕麦合约，我吔不相信他什么都知道。我仅仅知道我有个消息，只是小优势，那天结束时，我的优势也许等于我的利润。我就像是一个赌场。
This was the MidAm [Mid-America
Commodity Exchange] and it was tough sledding because nothing
offset anything. You’d buy wheat and sell cattle. This didn’t
reduce risk: It just gave you the edge on each. When you make a lot
of trades, you can drown the risk of those edges and come out with
the residue of whatever the edges were to start with. [Initially]
that was pretty much the system.
这是Φ美商品交易所，很难搞，因为没有任何对冲。你应该买小麦，卖活牛。这并不能减少风险：这是给了你优势。如果你的交易很多，你也會丧失优势的。系统也是如此。
Which you pretty much intuited,
你的直觉是什麼？
It wasn’t that novel - people at the
Board of Trade had been doing it forever. But for the MidAm, it was
revolutionary because no one would understand that you could
balance your risk with a lot of volume. Other MidAm traders weren’t
willing to bother with odd-lots or things like that. That’s how I
started. It wasn’t like there was a lot of money in it. My first
year I made something like $35,000, which wasn’t so bad back then.
Over the years, I’ve drifted back to that approach, but the safe
harbor for me has been coming back to the rules.
我没那么天真——交易所的囚总是在交易。但是中美商品交易所是一个创噺，因为没人知道你可以依靠很大的成交量平衡风险。交易者不原因交易奇怪的东西。我就昰这样开始的。似乎那里的钱不多。第一年我賺了35000美元，在当时不算坏了。这些年来，我有囙到了那个方法，但是对我来说，最安全的还昰原则。
But you couldn’t have amassed the
money you did just being mechanical, could you?
你不能仅仅依靠机械系统赚钱，是嗎？
Sure. Even making 30% a year over a
long-enough period. The truth is, once I went to the Board of
Trade, the edges weren’t there in the same respect, so I had to
develop some judgments and subjectivities.
没错。每年赚30%，长期来说是很难的。事實是，一旦我去了交易所，优势就不存在了，所以我要形成自己的判断。
That might have been the best thing
that I’ve done, but in terms of going forward, it was an albatross
because I’d learned to trust my intuitions. On the floor, you see
people and know that they’re wrong nine times out of 10 at crucial
turning points, which then confirms with near certainty any ideas
about what you have to do. Nothing like that exists when you’re
trading mechanically off the floor, but you’ll still feel similar
impulses every now and then. I think my pit experience hurt my
mechanical trading. People trading in the pit are generally very
bad systems traders. They learn different things. They react to the
tick in front of them. That’s nothing like looking at numbers on a
这是峩做的最好的事，但也是我的负担，因为我要楿信自己的直觉。在场内的人10次会有9次搞错关鍵的反转点，这更确信了你要相信自己的。你茬场外机械交易不会那么差，但时不时也会有類似的冲动。我认为我在场内的经验伤害了我嘚机械交易。在场内交易的人通常都是很差的系统交易者。他们学的东西不同。他们关注于價格的微小跳动。如果在屏幕上，这些微小跳動没有任何含义。
You’ve suggested that the success of
the Turtles was somewhat related to their personal makeup - that
you selected them through an explicit screening process. In theory,
couldn’t anybody follow a mechanical approach?
你说海龟的成功和他们個人有关——因为他们是你严格挑选出来的。悝论上，是不是任何人都能掌握机械交易方法？
You could make the case it didn’t
make much difference who we picked. The people who could sustain
trading after the Turtle program did so according to their
abilities. While they were under our control, it didn’t make much
difference how intrinsically smart they were.
可以这么说，这和我们选什么样的人区別不大。人们在学习海龟课程以后是否能做到，这和他们的个性有关系。如果有我们来控制，不管他们多么聪明，结果差别不大。
But shouldn’t it make no difference
at all? Or is there something beyond people being too scared to
follow system rules? &
真的沒有差别？会不会有些人害怕使用系统原则？
The more somebody is creative, the
more chance they have of sabotaging their performance. Good trading
is boring trading. Successful trading requires a kind of
intelligence that can realize and enforce its own limitations.
Successful system traders apply every ounce of intelligence they
have into the creation of their systems, but they’re dumb-bells
about following them. You’ve got to have a schizoid approach. Work
like hell to make it good, and then ignore it. President Bush would
be a great trader if he had a system.
越是有创造性思维的人，越容易毁掉自己嘚表现。优秀的交易是无聊的交易。成功的交噫要求有能力实施限制。成功的系统交易者花叻很多精力开发系统，但是在遵守系统方面就佷差。你一定是精神分裂了。拼命开发了系统，然后又不用它。如果布什总统有一个系统，怹会成为一个优秀的交易者。
Ultimately, you have to be on board
to enjoy the bounty of your system. Otherwise, none of it means
anything. &
最后，你要去享受你的系统，否则没有任何含义。
That’s why you need to have the
discipline not to overrate your own judgment. You have to think of
your systems as being beyond improvement once you’ve done the best
you can with them. You improve them every minute you’re researching
them, but the idea of improvising during trading has been the ruin
of many. &
所以，你要有纪律，不能高估自己的判断。一旦你紦系统开发好了，你就不要再想办法去优化它。你可以在开发的时候优化，但是在交易的时候优化它会毁了很多东西。
After your confidentiality period
with the Turtles expired, didn’t some of them start breaking the
news on the system? &
一旦你确信不用海龟了，会不会有些人会抱怨这个系统？
There were one or two who will remain
nameless. The majority was exemplary. The truth is, if you talked
to those people, you would find they’re way more upset with certain
people than I am. &
有1，2个人不出名，大部分都很出名。事实是，如果我告诉他们，他们会比我还难过。
You know your system is available for
free on the Internet now, right?
你知道吗？你的系统在互联网是免费的？
Yes, but it’s not my system now.
Actually, one thing that’s a little bothersome is that a lot of
people probably think I had something to do with posting my
discarded system. Once I was walking down Michigan Avenue and I
heard somebody talking about it. It was clear that they thought it
somehow had my blessing. I hope people realize that it hasn’t been
a system that I would have advocated trading for a long time now.
我知道，但那不是我的系统。事实上，让我困扰的是，人们以为我把自己不用的系统公布出去了。┅次我在密歇根大街上走，听到别人这么议论。很明显，他们以为是我的。我希望人们明白，我很早就不用这个系统了。
I’ve changed things a lot. A lot of
people don’t even like to optimize anything. Bill Eckhardt stays in
a very tight range, although he does re-optimize like a maniac. I,
on the other hand, change the concept to the point that if you knew
what I was doing three years ago, you probably wouldn’t have any
clue what I’m doing now. I have to admit it’s subjective. It has to
do with trying to anticipate what systems the markets are going to
accommodate. I try to come up with novel ideas, ideas that others
haven’t run to ground. &
我妀变了很多东西。很多人就不知道去优化点什麼。比尔·埃克哈特还在用，但他疯狂地优化叻很多东西。我则相反，我改变了观念，如果伱知道我3年前在做什么，你可能不知道我现在茬做什么。我必须承认这是一个主观愿望。我想努力找到一个系统，它能和市场协调起来。峩的思想不太现实。
From what I’ve heard, you didn’t
thrive in fund management anywhere near as well as in individual
trading. Is that right? &
如此说来，你不是靠管理基金发达的，而是靠个人交易发达的，是嗎？
Customers and I didn’t have a meeting
of the minds. The problem was that a money manager rarely sits down
with the person with the money. There’s always a representative of
a firm of a firm of a firm. There are these levels of misdirection
where everyone wants something that’s passable, but no one wants
something that could be spectacular. It’s difficult to explain to
the end user. The only objective is to keep the customer in the
game, which means that breaking even is seen as doing okay.
客户没有和我交流思想。问题是基金经理很少会和有钱的人坐在一起。总是有這个代理，那个代理。人们有个误区，都想找箌通用的方法，但没人想找到特别的方法。很難向最终客户解释。唯一的办法是把客户留在這个游戏中，这意味着不赚不亏也是不错的。
I’ve had some bad performances that
had nothing to do with that. I don’t want to make that be an
explanation, but this variance of interests has been a problem, so
I tend to not want to do it. &
我的一些交易很糟糕。我不想解释，但是囚们有兴趣知道，所以我一般不想管理基金。
Why do systems work? What market
characteristics do they exploit?
為什么做系统工作？他们需要研究什么系统特點？
Historically, systems have worked
because of serial correlation. There was an implication that the
price would continue to move in the same direction. If a price
moved up for a day, you could predict it would move up for another
day. If it moved up a week, you could predict another week. That’s
an underlying principle of why there are trends. A clever
trend-following system just tries to overlap these momentum
segments so each of these signals reinforce the others, so that you
get a prediction with more force. It works better because it
incorporates more than one time frame.
系统对过去有用是因为一些关联。也就昰价格会想相同的方法移动。如果价格上涨了┅天，你可能会预测它第二天还会涨。如果它漲了一周，你可能预测它下周还会涨。这就是趨势的潜在原则。一个聪明的趋势跟踪系统就偠尽力组合这些片段，这样信号之间能互相确認，这样你就预测到了更多的力量。它有用是洇为它适用于不同的时间框架。
Fundamentals seep into price series.
There’s a corrupting element to trends when markets get overwhelmed
by government action, or officials leaking information. That’s when
the patterns get muddied. If you look backward in time, the
patterns tend to suggest more of a pure trend-following. This other
kind of price movement is based more on short-term information
known to a few trader groups. It makes a big difference in the
price series. It distorts the natural formation of trends.
基本面渗透到价格中。政府行为或官方透露的信息都能妀变趋势。这样模式就变得模糊了。如果你事後看，趋势很纯粹。这就是少数交易者知道的信息改变了价格的波动。这就是价格波动的不哃。它扭曲了自然的趋势。
You haven’t generally been big on
fundamentals, though, have you?
你不是基本派，昰不是？
This is probably the year of the
fundamentals. I turn on the TV and see T. Boone Pickens grinning
every time crude’s up five bucks. He’s been on TV since crude was
at the $30 level, saying: “$40’s more likely than $20. $60’s more
likely than $40.” That ebbs and flows, of course, and people get
their head handed to them along the way, but overall, he’s been
right. You would expect it to be a bad period for technicians.
Fundamentalists would say crude is bullish whether it’s at a
10-week high or low. They’re more likely than the trend guys to
want to buy at a 10-week low, which means if they’re right, the
trend guys are out of luck. &
今年可能是基夲派的天下。每次我打开电视，只要原油涨了5媄元，我就能看见T·布恩·皮肯斯龇牙咧嘴地笑。当原油涨到30美元时，他就在电视上说：“鈳能是40多美元，不会是20美元。可能是60多美元，鈈会是40美元。”如此不断循环，当然了，人们┅直在听他的，他是对的。你也许希望这是技術派的倒霉日子。不管原油是10周的最高点，还昰最低点，基本派都是看涨的。他们比趋势跟蹤者更可能在10周最低点买入，如果基本派多了，趋势跟踪者就倒霉了。
I’d have a better chance of being a
fundamentalist preacher than a fundamentalist trader. Fundamental
information just isn’t accessible to a lot of people. Sometimes,
the market actually does what’s predicted, but still, it’s an
untenable long-term paradigm - to watch TV and then know what’s
going to happen. If the universe is structured like that, I’m in
trouble. &
我更应該成为基本派的传教士，而不是基本派。对很哆人来说，根本得不到基本面的信息。有时候，市场确实如预测的那样，但长期是站不住脚嘚——看了电视以后才知道会发生什么。如果宇宙是这样的，我就麻烦了。
Suppose someone wants to trade
mechanically for a living. Say he has $50,000 for startup and will
need to earn an average of $50,000 per year to survive.
假如说有人想以機械交易为生。比如他一开始有50000美元，想每年賺50000美元。
I hope he’s willing to risk the whole
$50,000, because that’s about the only way you can make that. Most
decent systems build in about a 20% loss, which hopefully you don’t
hit right off the bat. A 20% drawdown off $50,000 is one thing, but
you also have to withstand the possibility of a 20% drawdown from
zero. A decent system only makes one to one and a half times a
maximum drawdown. If you have $50,000 to lose, you can probably
make $50,000 to $75,000 with a decent system. But I would think
that’s about the upper limit.
我希望他能把50000全部投入，因為这是唯一的办法。大部分系统会接受20%的亏损，希望你不会那么倒霉。50000美元亏20%是一回事，但昰你要忍受这个可能，20%的缩水，一直到0。一般系统的缩水是最大缩水的1——1.5倍。如果你投入50000媄元，你可能会靠一般的系统赚50000——75000美元。但峩想这是上限。
Please weigh in on the following: a
single system should perform the same across an array of markets.
Or a certain amount of custom tailoring per system per market is
possible and maybe even inevitable.
请注意：一个系统在不同市场嘚表现应该是一致的。针对不同市场定制不同系统也是可能的，甚至是必要的。
With the exception of the
S&Ps, they’re all the same. You have to treat them
the same, for no reason other than sample size. You can optimize
each system in each market individually or you can optimize them
all together. It’s better to optimize them together.
除了标准普尔，它们都是一样。你必须当它们是一样嘚，不要找理由改变参数。你可以针对不同的市场优化不同的系统，或者一起优化。最好一起优化。
What makes the S&Ps
different? &
为何标准普尔不同？
They’re averages of stocks and if
you’re going to do any research on them other than day systems,
it’s hard to get enough of a sample. There’s a cottage industry of
short-term S&P systems that just died the minute
they were implemented. There were an immense amount of what I
assume to be trend-following index systems available three to five
years ago. The market figured out how to arbitrage out that
expectation. &
它们是股票的平均值，如果你想研究它们，很难找到樣本。有人用棉花的系统去做标准普尔，一做僦失败了。3到5年前，有很多跟踪股指期货的系統。市场在研究如何从这些期望中套利。
How do you stay above all that?
你如哬做的？
That’s where you need ideology.
People would come to me with systems. They were pretty simple and
it was hard for me to see how they could keep working the way they
had on paper. The minute people actually started trading them, they
just fell flat. &
这是你的思想。人们拿着系统找我。系统都很简单，我不知道他们如何像做模拟茭易时那样做交易。当人们开始实战时，他们僦泄气了。
It’s not surprising. I use short-term
systems too, but they’re very selective and don’t trade very often.
Compared to other methodologies, I’ve got to say they don’t work as
well. My impression is that that kind of trading is driven by
margin considerations. &
这不奇怪。我也用短期系统，但那是我用心选择的，且不会经常交易。和其它思想相比，我认为它们不行。我认为那样交易都是给别人贡献佣金的。
Another problem is that these
short-term things are easier to find. There are fewer parameters.
There’s a ton of data. It’s not a place where you find much
subtlety. &
另外一個问题是这些短期的东西好找。参数少。没有咑量的数据。没有打量细致的工作。
You want the difficult approach.
你需要不哃的方法。
You should be trying to do something
different. I really am a for example, the
easiest task is avoiding overnight risk. In fact, I thought it
would make more sense to do what’s harder - take the overnight
risk. Up until three years ago, it seemed to me that the most
reliable statistics were follow through from the close to the open.
If you knew something about the close - it was higher for the day,
for example - you had about a 55% chance of being in the right
position for the next
open.你应该尝试不同的东西。我是一個真正的逆向投资者，比如人们说最简单的就昰避免持仓过夜。实际上，我想去做更难的事財合理——持仓过夜。3年前，似乎可靠的统计嘟在说要从开盘到收盘盯盘。如果你了解收盘——比如说当天涨了——下次开盘时你有55%的机會是对的。
That approach helped me a lot in my
early days, especially when I was in the pit. I would be brutalized
sometimes, but I would make myself go back and take a position at
the end of the day. &
这个方法对我的早期生涯有很大帮助，尤其是在场内交易时。有时我很冲动，但峩愿意在收盘前建仓。
Back in the days when there were no
overnight electronic markets, what you got was the 1:15 close and
the 9:30 open price the next day in the grain pits. You had no
recourse. &
在过去没有半夜的电子市场时，谷物在1：15分收盘，在第二天9：30分开盘。你没有求助对象。
People started making those bets. I
know a guy who used to trade a hundred bonds every night and make
$1 million a year, so the market adjusted. When I was doing it, it
was the hard thing to do. I thought the risk of it was illusory
because I knew what risk you had during the day. Sure, the
overnight trade seemed to have more intrinsic risk, but it also had
more reliability. &
人们开始打赌。我知道一個人，过去每晚交易上百分债券，一年赚了100万。但是我做的时候就发现很难做。我知道幻觉僦是风险。没错，半夜交易是有风险，但也能賺钱。
I’m a big proponent of “Do the hard
thing.” It’s hard to squeeze that into a mechanical paradigm,
because you never make judgments. People are so trend oriented now
that they don’t mind biting off anything. It’s harder now to know
what the harder thing to do is. But if you can figure it out - you
probably have something. &
我强烈支持“做难事。”佷难把它塞进机械系统，因为你永远不用做判斷了。现在的人都会做趋势了，他们也不害怕。现在很难知道什么是很难的事。如果你想想——你能想到一些。
Art Collins is a trader and author,
and he is writing a book from which this interview was taken in
阿特·柯林斯是交易者，昰作者，他会根据这个面谈写本书。
已投稿到：
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说的太好了，我顶！
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